Back at the beginning of April, I started taking screenshots of the reports on Here’s how things progressed:

first capture, april 9, 2020. expecting ~800 on may 1
mostly following the median of the projection
still mostly following, a tick past median
on track
now at 1250 may 1
added smoothing and a 3 day smooth because they realized reporting isn’t instant.
now at 2250 on may 1, nearly a 100% jump
the predicted downward ramp isn’t ramping down….

Feeling your oats

The expression dates back to the early 19th century, used for the frisky, energetic movements of a horse when it has a belly full of oats. The earliest example recorded by the Oxford English Dictionary comes from the Boston Transcript in 1831: “Whether the pony felt his oats…he took a frightful canter.”

Wall Street Journal