Hammering the Trend @ Open Mind

Interesting analysis of linear regressions used to advance different agendas in climate science at Open Mind.

Recent research from Oliva et al. is all about trend change in temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). It follows in the footsteps of Turner et al., and their common conclusion is that since about 1998, the Antarctic peninsula — so often touted as one of the fastest-warming regions on earth — has been cooling, cooling even faster than it was warming before 1998.

When I run Monte Carlo simulations to compensate for the multiple trials, using a 66-year-long total record as I used for Antarctic (from 1950 through 2015), the “maybe impressive” p-value of 0.061 turned into a no-way-not-even-close p-value of 0.67. In other words, there’s about a 2/3 chance of finding a time span at least as suggestive as the one in the Antarctica data.

So no, I do not consider the evidence sufficient to regard cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula as being even likely, let alone established. It’s possible, and only time will tell, but the evidence presented so far isn’t strong enough to stand on its own.

Incidentally,since their studies there’s a little bit more data available, for 2016 and the first three months of 2017. Here’s an update of the previous graph, adding the 2016 and first-quarter-2017 values

Source: Hammering the Trend | Open Mind