progressions

Back at the beginning of April, I started taking screenshots of the reports on covid19.healthdata.org. Here’s how things progressed:

first capture, april 9, 2020. expecting ~800 on may 1
mostly following the median of the projection
still mostly following, a tick past median
on track
now at 1250 may 1
added smoothing and a 3 day smooth because they realized reporting isn’t instant.
now at 2250 on may 1, nearly a 100% jump
the predicted downward ramp isn’t ramping down….