How to Read Polling Data

Whenever you see an article that cites polling data, you should add or subtract the true margin of error and consider how the story would change. For instance, the polling average we calculated above had Trump’s approval rating at 41 percent. The true margin of error on this number, based on the rules-of-thumb above, is about plus or minus 3 points. What if Trump’s approval rating were really 44 percent? Or 38 percent? How much would this change the story? In this case, I’d suggest, it wouldn’t change the story all that much. Trump would still be unusually unpopular for a president-elect.

By contrast, national polling averages during the final week of the campaign had Clinton up by 3 to 4 percentage points. By the rules above, the true margin of error on this number was about plus or minus 6 points. That means Clinton could really have been ahead by 9 to 10 percentage points — or that Trump could have been up by 2 to 3 points.2 The story would be completely different, in other words, based on even modest errors in the polling. But very little of the horse-race coverage that I read conveyed that sense of uncertainty.

Source: Can You Trust Trump’s Approval Rating Polls? | FiveThirtyEight

Hanky Panky

If I told you I was going to make you a drink with gin, sweet vermouth, and Fernet, I think you’d probably run. 

It’s weirdly delicious. 

Stir, serve really cold. Orange twist at the end is essential. 

Pom + Cane = Grenadine

Spent an hour today making grenadine. It’s pomegranate season, so how’s the time. Add a few shots of vodka and itll keep in the freezer for a while. 

If you’re inclined, it’s really easy. Seed five pomegranates, juice the seeds, sieve. You should have around two cups of juice. Then put in a little pot with a cup of sugar and bring to a simmer, stirring occasionally. Cut the heat, taste for sweetness. Let cool and add 3oz of vodka if freezing. Otherwise keeps about a month.